AP News's Seth Borenstein is reporting on El Nino.
The U.S. winter forecast suggests milder temperatures and fewer snowfalls, influenced by a strong El Nino and climate change effects. The North is expected to be warmer, while the South will experience increased wetness and storminess. This prediction comes from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), who released their winter outlook highlighting the impacts of El Nino and global warming. Due to the warmer conditions, some areas in the North that would usually receive snow will likely have rain. However, the East Coast might witness one or two significant Nor’easters, potentially leading to higher-than-average snowfall in areas like the Mid-Atlantic.
Most parts of the U.S., especially regions from Tennessee to Nebraska, California, and even northern areas like Alaska and New England, are predicted to have above-normal temperatures. No regions are expected to be colder than average. In contrast, a vast southern section, extending from Massachusetts to Texas and covering most of California, is predicted to be wetter, except for some portions of New Mexico and Arizona. The Great Lakes and the furthest northern parts are anticipated to be drier.
El Nino, a periodic Pacific warming phenomenon, is responsible for these weather pattern changes, especially affecting U.S. winter conditions. It causes the jet stream to follow an unusual path influenced by warmer Pacific air, resulting in more rain in the South and increased storminess. This can also lead to severe weather in places like Florida and potent snowstorms in the East, depending on various conditions. An example of this was the 2010 Snowmageddon storm during an El Nino year.
Climate change further accentuates these predictions, with the winter season experiencing significant warming due to fossil fuel combustion. Over the past 40 years, winter temperatures in the U.S. have risen by an average of 1.6°F. Other meteorologists, including Judah Cohen from Atmospheric Environmental Research, also forecast a milder winter, influenced by factors like Siberian snow cover and the polar vortex's behavior. The private firm AccuWeather predicts varied snowfall across different cities and anticipates less warmth than NOAA in several southern states.
Source: AP News
(This article was written with assitance from ChatGPT)